China first quarter emissions fell despite rising power demand

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🗞️ Driving the news: China’s carbon emissions fell 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, despite a 2.5% rise in power demand, according to new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)
• This marks the first time that emissions reduction has been driven primarily by the growth of clean energy, rather than declining economic activity

🔭 The context: As the world’s top greenhouse gas emitter, China has pledged to peak emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060
• It has accelerated renewable energy deployment, adding more wind and solar capacity than all other countries combined
• Previous dips in emissions were typically linked to economic slowdowns or pandemic restrictions; the current decline reflects structural shifts in the power sector, with clean energy outpacing fossil fuels in meeting new demand

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: China’s power sector emissions fell 5.8% in Q1, helping to offset increases in other carbon-intensive sectors like metals and chemicals
• This transition signals that large-scale renewable deployment can meaningfully reduce emissions even in high-growth economies
• However, ongoing coal construction — 94.5 GW in 2024 alone — raises concerns about long-term emissions unless curbed
• The outcome of China’s response to U.S. tariffs could also influence future emissions trajectories

⏭️ What's next: Beijing’s energy strategy will be tested amid trade tensions with the U.S. and global economic uncertainty
• Analysts caution that carbon-intensive stimulus could reverse recent gains
• Meanwhile, China remains off track to meet its Paris Agreement target of reducing carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 levels by 2030
• Policy clarity and continued investment in renewables and grid infrastructure will be critical to sustaining current progress

💬 One quote: “Growth in clean power generation has now overtaken the current and long-term average growth in electricity demand, pushing down fossil fuel use,” — Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA

📈 One stat: China began construction on 94.5 gigawatts of coal power in 2024 — 93% of all new coal projects globally

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