Breaking down COP 29: success stories and setbacks

COP29 was the 29th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The COP29 international climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, also called the 'Finance COP', wrapped up on the 24th of November, 2024, following almost two weeks of tense negotiations. This edition explores the summit's key achievements while also highlighting areas where progress stalled and the challenges and opportunities on the road to COP 30 in Belem, Brazil. 

What did COP 29 accomplish? 

Carbon markets

COP 29 achieves full operationalisation of Article 6: 

Under Article 6.2, mechanisms were finalised to allow countries to bilaterally or multilaterally trade Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), which will enable them to meet climate commitments more flexibly while ensuring transparency and avoiding double counting.

The decision under Article 6.4 allows the transition of significant volumes of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits to the new Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM), with initial standards for carbon removals, methodologies, and safeguards adopted. However, countries mandated the PACM Supervisory Body to refine these standards and present updates at COP30 in Belém.

COP 29 made progress on Article 6.8, setting the direction for a two-year work program on non-market approaches to enhance cooperative climate action.

Notably, Article 6 cooperation was highly visible beyond negotiation rooms, with significant developments such as Norway's $770 million fund for ITMO acquisitions, the launch of the GGGI Carbon Transaction Facility, and the World Bank’s template for Letters of Authorization.

Energy 

1. Launch of the COP29 Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge: The pledge commits signatories to commit to a collective goal of deploying 1500 GW of energy storage globally by 2030. It also includes a commitment to add or refurbish 25 million kilometres of grids globally by 2030, recognising the need to add or refurbish an additional 65 million kilometres by 2040.

2. The Latin America Energy Organisation announced a regional target for Energy Efficiency: The target amounts to the doubling outcome of the Global Stocktake and a regional agreement on No More Coal-Fired Power Plants in the region.

Hydrogen

COP29 Hydrogen Declaration: Endorsers commit to scale up renewable, clean/zero-emission and low-carbon hydrogen production and accelerate the decarbonisation of existing hydrogen production from unabated fossil fuels. It aims to significantly increase green hydrogen production from 1 Mt annually today and reduce the 96 Mt of hydrogen currently produced from unabated fossil fuels.

Hydropower

1. The Hydro4NetZero-LAC initiative was launched to develop and modernise sustainable hydropower infrastructure, increasing the energy systems’ flexibility and resilience. 

2. The International Hydropower Association (IHA) launched an alliance of 14 governments to advance the deployment of pumped storage hydropower.

Methane

1. During the COP29 Global Methane pledge, progress was reviewed, and the addition of Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Guatemala, and Madagascar was announced. Governments and philanthropy announced nearly USD 500 million in new grant funding for methane abatement. 

2. Reducing Methane from Organic Waste: 30 countries, collectively responsible for nearly 50% of global methane from organic waste emissions, endorsed the declaration, which sets the commitment to set sectoral targets for reducing methane from organic waste within future NDCs.

Industry 

The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) launched the definitions, aiming to provide the international alignment needed to raise demand and fast-track green materials procurement.

Buildings

1. Global Cooling Pledge: 8 regions from Africa and Latin America joined the Subnational Global Cooling Pledge at COP 29, aiming to tackle extreme heat that affects 30 million+ citizens. Action includes scaling up green spaces, driving demand for efficient cooling by 2030, and developing heat action plans by 2026.

2. Institutionalisation of the Intergovernmental Council for Buildings and Climate (ICBC): The ICBC, institutionalised at COP29, unites governments to advance building decarbonisation and resilience through collaboration, insights, and implementation of the Chaillot Declaration.

Transport

1. Stakeholders Across the Maritime Value Chain Align to Accelerate Adoption of Zero-Emission Fuels by 2030 for a Sustainable Shipping Future: More than 50 stakeholders across the shipping value chain called for faster and bolder action to increase zero and near-zero emissions fuel uptake, investment in zero-emissions vessels, and global development of green hydrogen infrastructure, leaving no country behind. 

2. Avoid and Shift Breakthrough: Avoid and Shift Breakthrough launched to double the share of energy-efficient and fossil-free forms of land transport for people and goods by 2030 by focusing on shifts to public transport, walking, cycling and rail freight, as well as electric vehicles and railways.

Small and Medium Enterprises

1. Signing of the declaration Baku Climate Coalition for SMEs' Green Transition

2. Climate Proofing SMEs: The campaign unites over 40 organizations globally, engaging 90 million SMEs in 100+ countries, with 9,000 committed to net-zero action through Race to Zero.

Nationally Determined Contributions

The UAE (cut GHG emissions by 47% by 2035, relative to 2019), the UK (cut emissions by 81% compared with 1991 levels by 2035) and Brazil (reduce net GHG emissions to between 59% to 67% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels) announced new nationally determined contributions and emission reduction targets during the summit.

Export credits

Launch of The Net Zero Export Credit Agencies Alliance (NZECA): The protocol provides guidance to export credit agencies (ECAs) and export-import (ExIm) banks on setting net-zero targets and putting them into action to accelerate their decarbonisation ambitions.

Adaptation

The G7 countries join forces to strengthen adaptation actions in support of the most vulnerable countries: The initiative aims to accelerate the implementation of and investment in adaptation, particularly in establishing viable investment plans and promoting partnerships to mobilise support from developing countries.

Water 

Nearly 50 Countries Sign Baku Declaration on Water for Climate Action as COP29 Concludes Thematic Day Calendar: A declaration calling upon stakeholders to take integrated approaches to combat the causes and impacts of climate change on water basins and water-related ecosystems, integrate water-related mitigation and adaptation measures in national climate policies, including NDCs and NAPS.

Food Systems

1. The Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers: An aggregator bringing together initiatives, coalitions and networks to share experiences, identify synergies and gaps, facilitate finance, and foster collaboration on agriculture, including by empowering communities and women in rural areas.

2. Launch of Agriculture Innovation Mechanism for Scale (AIM for Scale)'s Innovation Package: The USD 1 billion Package aims to empower the generation and dissemination of weather forecasts to hundreds of millions of farmers across Asia, Latin America and Africa, recognising the transformative potential of AI.

Health

Baku COP29 advances health-climate commitments with new coalition: The coalition co-led by Azerbaijan, Brazil, Egypt, UAE, and the UK, in partnership with WHO, advances health-focused climate action by operationalising Climate-Health Financing principles, showcasing integrated strategies, scaling innovative financing mechanisms, and strengthening country-level collaborations to build resilient health systems globally. These efforts ensure sustained momentum and impactful health outcomes as COP30 approaches.

Human Development

Baku Initiative on Human Development for Climate Resilience: Human development is at the heart of climate action. It means healthier, resilient, better education and skilled populations and communities that can contribute to addressing climate change and adapt to its impacts. International organisations, multilateral development banks, and international climate and environmental funds endorsed the initiative through a joint statement. It aims to enhance cooperation to address climate change impacts on human development.

Peace

Baku Call on Climate Action for Peace, Relief, and Recovery: The initiative is aimed at addressing the nexus of climate change, conflict, and humanitarian needs. It establishes the Baku Climate and Peace Action Hub, a cooperative platform to facilitate collaboration for conflict-sensitive climate action and scale up support and finance for climate-vulnerable countries affected by conflicts and high humanitarian needs.

Transparency

Updated UNFCCC Global Climate Action Portal: The UNFCCC Global Climate Action Portal has been updated to include the latest climate action and progress information from non-party stakeholders and cooperative climate initiatives.

Nature

UK Government drives nature up the agenda at COP29: The UK pledged £239 million of new funding to tackle deforestation in countries, including Colombia and Indonesia, recognising the critical role of forests as carbon sinks.

Ocean

COP29 Baku Ocean Declaration: The Ocean Pavilion Declaration calls on countries, organisations, and companies to prioritise ocean-based actions that align climate, biodiversity, and desertification goals, emphasizing international collaboration and increased public and private funding.

Youth

The HLCs supported the Youth Pavilion at COP 29: The Children and Youth Pavilion aimed to amplify the voices of young people, curating a programme by young people and supported by leading youth networks.

Conference of Youth (COY): The IEA proudly participated as a Knowledge Partner at COY 19, the youth conference held prior to COP under YOUNGO, from November 7-9, 2024. For the first time, the IEA hosted thematic sessions aligned with YOUNGO priorities, building youth capacity and empowering young voices in energy discussions. Looking ahead, the IEA is committed to deepening its engagement at COY 20 in Belém, including pre-COY workshops and events.

Tourism

COP29 Declaration on Enhanced Climate Action in Tourism: The declaration includes sectoral targets for tourism in NDCs and aims to promote sustainable practices by reducing emissions and increasing resilience in the sector.

Finance

1. New Collective Quantified Goal on Finance: With a central focus on climate finance, COP29 reached a breakthrough agreement that will: a. Triple finance to developing countries, from the previous goal of USD 100 billion annually to USD 300 billion annually by 2035. b. Secure efforts of all actors to work together to scale up finance to developing countries, from public and private sources to the amount of USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.

2. Multilateral Development Banks to Boost Climate Finance: Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) pledged to collectively provide annual climate financing of USD 120 billion by 2030 for low- and middle-income countries, including USD 42 billion for adaptation and USD 65 billion mobilised from the private sector.

3. Announcing the Listing of Climate Investment Funds (CIF) Capital Markets Mechanism (CCMM) Bond Issuance Program on the London Stock Exchange

4. Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF): A fund, capitalised with voluntary contributions from fossil fuel-producing countries and companies, to catalyse the public and private sectors across mitigation, adaptation, and research and development. The Fund will also have special facilities for highly concessional and grant-based funding to rapidly address the consequences of natural disasters in developing countries in need.

Technology

COP29 Declaration on Green Digital Action: The declaration seeks to advance climate-positive digitalisation, reduce emissions in the ICT sector, and improve access to green digital technologies.

Setbacks in the climate action COP 29

1. Transitioning from fossil fuels: Despite growing urgency, nations were unable to agree on binding commitments to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. These subsidies remain one of the largest hurdles to achieving decarbonisation, as they distort energy markets and hinder the adoption of cleaner alternatives.

2. India's position on Climate Finance: India, along with other developing countries such as Nigeria and Malawi, rejected the proposed New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance at COP29, citing two key issues: Insufficient Financial Ambition: The suggested goal of mobilizing $300 billion annually by 2035 was deemed “too little and too distant” to meet the needs of developing nations. Exclusionary Decision-Making: India argued that the proposal failed to adequately represent the priorities of the Global South.

3. Linking Climate and Nature: While COP28 in Dubai spotlighted the critical role of biodiversity and nature-based solutions in climate mitigation and adaptation, COP29 failed to sustain this momentum. Nature was less prominent in this year’s discussions, leaving COP30 with the challenge of re-establishing strong connections between biodiversity conservation and climate action.

4. Mitigation: The COP 29 Mitigation Work Programme delivered a weak outcome, offering generic, non-prescriptive messages and creating an online platform to foster collaboration on mitigation projects without leveraging the global stocktake results. Negotiations on the UAE Dialogue, including proposals for new goals on grids and storage and tracking COP 28 energy outcomes, were deferred to June 2025, aiming for adoption at COP 30.

Going forward

Going forward, it is paramount that those who committed to step up action and fulfil their pledges. In this regard, ensuring a robust tracking and monitoring system is key. Furthermore, future initiatives should take into account existing work in order to be complementary and synergistic, avoiding overlaps and siloes in order to accelerate and enhance ambitious global climate action.

Looking towards Belem COP 30

COP30 in Belém, Brazil, will build on COP29's progress and unresolved issues from COP 29. 

1. The Mission 1.5 C Troika aims to raise and reframe ambition for the development process of the next round of NDCs, which can coherently address all pillars of climate action under the 1.5°C umbrella and be underpinned by strengthened targets and implementation frameworks. 

2. It may announce the COP31 host, with Australia and Turkey as frontrunners. 

3. Baku to Belem finance roadmap: It included a call on: “all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country parties from all public and private sources to at least 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.”

4. Brazil COP 30 as the 'Implementation COP' and 'Just Transition COP'.

5. Brazil's stance on transitioning away from fossil fuels will be scrutinised, with expectations for bold commitments that align with global decarbonisation goals.

6. The COP 30 President and team are expected to be announced by the end of April. Brazil’s G20 presidency priorities—sustainable fuels, clean energy investments, climate finance mobilisation, and just transitions—are likely to influence the COP 30 agenda.