Brazil and China are talking trade. Here’s how they can deliver on sustainability goals

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🗞️ Driving the news: Brazil and China are deepening their agricultural trade ties, with Brazil exporting a record 15.7 million tonnes of soybeans in March 2025 — three-quarters of which were destined for China
• As bilateral trade surges, leaders from both nations, including President Lula and President Xi, are being urged to embed sustainability into their trade relationship to avoid accelerating deforestation, particularly in Brazil’s vulnerable Cerrado biome

🔭 The context: Brazil is projected to produce 167 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025 — up 20 million tonnes from last year — driven largely by Chinese demand
• The shift is partially a result of ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which have led China to reduce reliance on U.S. soy. However, past trade surges have correlated with spikes in deforestation
• In 2018, deforestation tied to Brazil-China soy trade was 42% higher than in 2022
• Although Brazil has curbed Amazon deforestation, the Cerrado remains poorly regulated, with laws permitting up to 80% land conversion for agriculture

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The soy trade between Brazil and China carries significant implications for global biodiversity, climate stability, and food security
• Land-use change in Brazil is responsible for nearly half the country's emissions
• If not managed sustainably, increased trade could intensify carbon emissions, forest loss, and supply chain risks
• Joint action by the two agricultural giants is vital to decoupling food production from ecosystem destruction

⏭️ What's next: Brazil and China have a strategic window to align economic cooperation with environmental stewardship
• Recent initiatives, including Brazil’s PPCerrado action plan and China’s 2035 climate pledge, provide policy momentum
• A landmark private-sector deal — coordinated by the Tropical Forest Alliance — to supply 1.5 million tonnes of certified sustainable soy from Brazil to Chinese dairy firms demonstrates growing appetite for deforestation-free trade

💬 One quote: “As the world’s largest exporter and importer of agricultural commodities, Brazil and China have an opportunity to show increased leadership... implementing supply chains that underpin food security while reducing environmental damage”

📈 One stat: Deforestation linked to the Brazil–China soy trade in 2018 was 42% higher than in 2022 — highlighting the environmental stakes of unchecked commodity flows

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