Are carbon offsets fixable?

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🗞️ Driving the news: A major scientific review finds most carbon offset programs significantly overstate their climate benefits
• The peer-reviewed paper “Are Carbon Offsets Fixable?” concludes that many widely used offset programs exaggerate emissions reductions by a factor of five to ten or more
• The review identifies persistent issues in the offset market, including lack of additionality, impermanence, leakage, and weak verification
• It warns that without reform, the credibility of the upcoming global carbon market under COP29 could be seriously undermined

🔭 The context: Carbon offsets have become central to net-zero strategies, but concerns about their integrity are growing
• Voluntary carbon markets expanded rapidly in recent years, but multiple studies have questioned the environmental value of many offset projects
• COP30 is expected to define rules for a new compliance market under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which could institutionalize offset use at scale
• This review provides a systematic evaluation of the offset landscape at a pivotal moment for international carbon governance

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Low-quality offsets undermine real climate progress and weaken global mitigation efforts
• Overstated credits allow emitters to claim climate benefits without actual emissions reductions, delaying the transition to a low-carbon economy
• If financial flows continue to support unverifiable offsets, resources may be diverted from high-integrity climate solutions like carbon removal and clean energy
• Strengthening the credibility of offset systems is essential to ensure that climate finance contributes to measurable, lasting environmental impact

⏭️ What's next: COP30 negotiations will determine the future of global carbon markets and offset credibility
• Policymakers will face pressure to establish clear standards for offset quality, including robust criteria for additionality, permanence, and transparency
• Market actors and companies may shift focus toward more verifiable carbon removal projects and internal emissions cuts
• New frameworks are expected within 12–18 months, reshaping how offsets are integrated into climate strategies and net-zero claims

💬 One quote: “Most offset programs continue to greatly overestimate their probable climate impact — often by a factor of five to ten or more.” 

📈 One stat: Studies estimate that up to 90% of rainforest offset credits may not represent real or additional emissions reductions

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