A crucial system of ocean currents is slowing. It’s already supercharging sea level rise in the US

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🗞️ Driving the news: A major new study reveals that a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has already contributed to up to half of coastal flooding events along the northeastern United States from 2005 to 2022
• The research, published in Science Advances, shows that the weakening current has driven up to eight flood days annually in the region by altering sea levels. Scientists warn the AMOC could collapse as early as the 2030s, amplifying climate risks

🔭 The context: The AMOC functions as a crucial oceanic “conveyor belt” that redistributes heat, salt, and freshwater across the Atlantic, strongly influencing weather systems and sea levels, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere
• While sea level rise is widely recognized as being driven by climate change, this study is the first to quantify how significantly AMOC slowdown contributes to flood frequency on the US East Coast
• Scientists used tide gauge data and ocean modelling to isolate the AMOC's role

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: A further weakening or collapse of the AMOC would reshape climate systems, disrupt monsoons, intensify sea level rise, and jeopardize coastal infrastructure globally
• Understanding AMOC's role enables more accurate short-term flood forecasting and long-term planning for adaptation
• However, the modelling relies on complex representations of ocean dynamics, which carry inherent uncertainties that warrant cautious interpretation

⏭️ What's next: The study’s forecasting model could allow flood risk predictions up to three years in advance, offering municipalities and governments vital time to prepare mitigation strategies
• Meanwhile, the scientific community continues to monitor AMOC stability, with mounting evidence suggesting increasing vulnerability due to ice melt and ocean warming
• Key developments in observational technology and international research collaborations are expected in the coming years to refine projections

💬 One quote: “This is a good way to demonstrate the day-to-day impacts of changes in the AMOC, rather than invoking dramatic scenes from Hollywood disaster movies,” — Professor David Thornally of University College London

📈 One stat: Between 2005 and 2022, up to 50% of flood events along the northeastern US coast were attributed to AMOC-induced sea level rise

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