You can’t miss it!

How will the Russian invasion of Ukraine play out? If the endgame is near impossible to call, the dramatic news overnight narrows the possibilities. The launch of a ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine closely matches the ‘most likely’ scenario political risk experts at Verisk Maplecroft flagged earlier this week. The events of the February 24, though, also make the main alternative scenario increasingly plausible – a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. At this point, de-escalation via diplomacy looks little more than a faint hope.